Thursday, October 29, 2009

New Jersey Governor's Race; Poll Says Corzine Leads But Its Too Close To Call

The latest average of six polls taken for the 2009 New Jersey Governor's race shows an overall two point lead for Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine over his Republcan challenger Chris Christie, 40.8% to 38.8%, making this race too close to call with five days to go until election day. Independent Chris Daggett remains static at 13.3%.

The website Real Clear Politics has taken the average of the Quinnipiac, Rasmussen Reports, Suffolk University, Survey USA, Rutgers-Eagleton, and Monmouth/Gannett polls.

Their data shows the following;
Quinnipiac- Corzine 43%; Christie 38%; Daggett 13%... Corzine +5
Rasmussen- Corzine 43%; Christie 46%; Daggett 7%... Christie +3
Suffolk- Corzine 42%; Christie 33%; Daggett 7%...Corzine +9
SurveyUSA Corzine 39%; Christie 41% Daggett 19%... Christie +2
Rutgers-Eagleton- Corzine 39%; Christie 36%; Daggett 20%...Corzine +3
Monmouth/Gannett- Corzine 39%; Christie 39%; Daggett 14%... Even

The average of the six polls gives Corzine a two point advantage.

The data from these polls has some interesting trends, or quirks if you will.

Corzine seems to remaining static at around 40% to 43%.

Christie clearly appears to be trending downward. A Monmouth/Gannett Poll from 7/29- 8/2 gave Christie a 14 point lead over Corzine (50 to 36%). A double digit midsummer lead has evaporated into possible negative territory.

Daggett's numbers are fluctuating wildly, from 7% to 20% in the latest polls. Its hard to tell which of the two major party candidates are being effected the most by Daggett's campaign, but it seems that some of the anti- Corzine vote is going to Daggett rather than to Christie. Whether that's a positive reaction to Daggett's campaign or a feeling of alienation to the seeming far right transformation of the GOP is anyone's guess.

The bottom line....with Corzine remaining relatively static in the polls, and Christie dropping like a rock, this looks more like Christie losing the election rather than Corzine winning it.

The old adage is that nobody cares about politics until the end of the World Series. Well, it may play out that the Series may still be going on before and after New Jersey picks its next governor.

Its tightening up...and the race to the finish line is coming up.

Stay tuned.

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